Official data from Japan's ministry show overseas residents bought 3.5% of new Tokyo condos in the first half of 2025, based on limited registration data and not the full picture. While Chinese buyers have cooled, some central and bayside properties still attract foreign demand, and the overall impact on prices may be larger than the survey suggests. If China slows and the yen strengthens, the market could shift from buyers to sellers; BoJ rate hikes may end the long upward trend, signaling a turning point in 2026. Short-term resale is mainly by Japanese investors seeking capital gains rather than foreigners.